China to become world’s largest aviation market
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China will surpass the US as the world’s largest passenger aviation market within the next 15 years, according to new passenger growth forecasts.
According to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) first 20-year passenger growth forecast, China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market by 2030.
In 2034 flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3bn passengers, 856mn more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% that will see 1.2bn passengers by 2034, 559mn more than 2014.
These two markets will see total passenger numbers grow at the highest rate through the next two decades, followed by India (266mn), Indonesia (183mn) and Brazil (170mn).
On a global scale, total air passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3bn by 2034, which represents a 4.1% average annual growth in demand for air connectivity that will result in more than a doubling of the 3.3bn passengers expected to travel this year.
Regionally, Asia Pacific will be a major growth driver. Passenger traffic in the region will grow by an estimated 4.9% per year for the next 20 years, which equates to an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers in the sky, and an annual total of 2.9bn in 2034. This will give Asia a 42% share of global air traffic.
The report, the first from the new IATA Passenger Forecasting service, produced in association with Tourism Economics. It analyses passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs for the next 20 years, forecasting passenger numbers according to living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
In terms of country-pairs, Asian and South American destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets. Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing pair of all, at 14.9% per year.
“Air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people. At present, aviation helps sustain 58mn jobs and US$2.4trn in economic activity. In 20 years’ time we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105mn jobs and US$6trn in GDP,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.
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