Airbus forecasts demand for 27,800 new aircraft
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Airbus has forecast a global demand for 27,800 new aircraft over the next 20 years. According to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), by 2030 the aviation industry will need 26,900 passenger aircraft (more than 100 seats) and more than 900 new freighters, with a combined price tag of US$3.5 trillion.
As a result, by 2030 the global passenger fleet will more than double from today’s 15,000 aircraft to 31,500. Of the expected 27,800 new aircraft deliveries, just 10,500 will be needed for replacing older jets. Airbus added that the trend towards larger aircraft will continue, in order for the aviation sector to keep pace with future growth in demand.
Geographically, over the next 20 years, Asia Pacific will account for approximately 34% of demand according to Airbus, followed by Europe (22%) and North America (22%). By share of passenger traffic, Asia Pacific will be the biggest market with 33%, followed by Europe (23%) and North America (20%).
In terms of passenger traffic on domestic markets, India (9.8%) and China (7.2%) will have the fastest growth rates over the next 20 years. Long established aviation markets will also continue to grow with the US (11.1%) and Intra Western Europe (7.5%) having the first and third largest shares of the total traffic in 2030.
“The aviation sector is an essential element for today’s global economy which is why more people than ever need and want to fly,” says John Leahy, Airbus’ Chief Operating Officer – Customers. “Airbus is bringing to market the latest innovations and eco-efficient products to satisfy the needs of airlines and the expectations of passengers now and in the years to come.”
Demand for Very Large Aircraft (VLA) seating more than 400 passengers, like the Airbus A380, has risen over 2010 forecasts from 1,738 to 1,781 aircraft valued at US$600 billion. This represents a 17% share by value or 6% share by aircraft units. Of these, nearly 1,330 are passenger aircraft needed to cater for the concentrated traffic volumes linking the world’s mega cities. Regionally, some 45% of the world’s VLAs will be delivered to Asia, 19% to Europe and 23% to the Middle East.
In the twin-aisle aircraft segment (seating from 250 to 400 passengers), such as the Airbus A330/350 or Boeing 777/787, some 6,900 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered in the next 20 years doubling the fleet of today by 2030. These deliveries are valued at some US$1.5 trillion, representing 43% share by value, or 25% share by units. Of these, some 4,800 aircraft will be small twin-aisle (250 to 300 seater) and about 2,100 intermediate twin aisles (350 to 400 seater).
In the single-aisle segment (Airbus A320 or Boeing 737), nearly 19,200 aircraft worth some US$1.4 trillion or 40% share by value, 69% share by units, will be delivered in the next 20 years. This is an increase over previous forecasts due to increased growth and acceleration in the replacement of older less efficient aircraft. Of the new deliveries, some 40% will be required to replacement needs. In addition some 50% of single-aisle aircraft deliveries will go to the well established aviation markets of North America and Europe.
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