The number of commercial aircraft operated by airlines in the Asia Pacific region will more than double in the next 20 years, Airbus has forecast.
The European planemaker used this week’s Singapore Airshow to provide an update on its market outlook for the region, with the key finding being the projection that the Asia Pacific fleet will grow from 5,600 aircraft today to 14,000 in 20 years’ time, an increase of 150%.
An annual increase in passenger traffic of 5.6% is expected to translate into a requirement for 12,800 new aircraft in Asia Pacific by 2035, valued at US$2 trillion. This represents 40% of global demand.
Of this total, 8,330 aircraft will be single-aisle jets like the Airbus A320 or Boeing 737, while 3,760 will be twin-aisles like the A330, A350, B777 and B787. And Airbus also projects demand for 720 very large aircraft like the A380.
Boeing also used the Singapore Airshow to update the market, focusing on the Southeast Asia region. The US planemaker predicts that carriers in Southeast Asia will need 3,750 new aircraft, valued at US$550 billion, over the next 20 years. This is in line with a projected 6.5% annual increase in passenger traffic.
“In this highly competitive market, airlines are adding capacity and adapting with new business models, such as the growing number of low-cost carriers,” said Dinesh Keskar, Boeing’s senior vice president of Asia Pacific & India Sales.
And the rise of LCCs is reflected in Boeing’s forecast, which projects demand for 2,860 single-aisle aircraft – the mainstay of the budget sector. This represents 76% of the total demand forecast.
Both Airbus and Boeing predict that approximately three quarters of new aircraft deliveries, both to Southeast Asia and the broader Asia Pacific region, will be to expand airlines’ fleets, with the remaining quarter being used to replace older aircraft.