Boeing raises forecast for new Chinese aircraft
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Boeing has shrugged off industry concerns about China’s economic problems by increasing its annual forecast for aircraft demand in the country.
The US planemaker released its latest China Current Market Outlook (CMO) in Beijing today, predicting that Chinese airlines will need to buy 6,330 new aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at US$950 billion.
This marks a 5.2% increase compared to the last report released in September 2014, which forecast demand for 6,020 aircraft.
“Despite the current volatility in China’s financial market, we see strong growth in the country’s aviation sector over the long term,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
“Over the next 20 years, China’s commercial airplane fleet will nearly triple, from 2,570 airplanes in 2014 to 7,210 airplanes in 2034, with more than 70% of these deliveries accommodating growth.”
As China moves to become the world’s largest domestic air travel market, Boeing is forecasting demand for 4,630 new single-aisle aircraft between 2015 and 2034, valued at US$490bn.
This sector being is driven by the growth of new airlines, including low-cost carriers, which are placing orders for aircraft such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. Although Boeing may face greater competition in this market in future, when China’s homemade COMAC C919 single-aisle jet takes to the skies.
In the wide-body segment, Boeing predicts Chinese demand for 1,510 new aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at US$450bn. The vast majority of these will be for aircraft in the 200-400-seat segment, such as the Boeing 777, 787, Airbus A330 and A350.
Only 50 of the wide-body jets forecast were extra-large jets (400+ seats) like the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380.
Tinseth said the rising demand for long-haul aircraft would be “enabled by China’s growing middle-class population, new visa policies and the underlying strength of its economic growth”.
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