Ahead of the Paris Air Show next week, Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer released Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category.
Market Outlook 2025 estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044, and also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft.
Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time.
The document also analyses demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Not quite status quo
The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate.
Arjan Meijer, Embraer president and CEO of commercial aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.
He said: “Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow.
Meijer added that the company believes that mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth.
Indeed, these would provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.
