For many people, especially intrepid travellers, the three years of border and airspace closure due to COVID-19 was a major trial: nowhere to go, nothing to see, and definitely little to do.
But that was nothing, is nothing as a matter of fact, to the closures and restrictions stemming from armed conflict in West Asia which, based on history, has gone on for practically a century.
For the better part of the 20th century and now a good deal of the 21st, war has dictated the run of the region’s politics, economy, culture, and tourism.
That last item, in particular, has been in a constant state of flux since the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1922: the moment even a minute’s peace is declared, the region goes in for a season of infrastructural development; but the next, it falls into absolute ruin and chaos.
War has been the strongest deterrent to more widespread tourism throughout West Asia; as Peng Hu and Derek D Wang of the Capital University of Economics and Business in Beijing rote in a 2023 study:
“The impact of war on tourism is a complex and multifaceted issue. Several variables may come into play, including the severity and duration of the conflict, the geographical scope, and the perceptions of safety among potential tourists. Wars can lead to disruptions in infrastructure, create security concerns, and generate negative media coverage, all of which can deter tourists.”
With the current conflict inching potentially into a fifth month, is it still possible for West Asian tourism to bounce back and, if so, how long will it take?
A matter of time
Optimistically, some experts opined that West Asian tourism, particularly in Gulf states like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, would bounce back in around six to nine months.
However, the same experts also pointed out that this would only be possible if the war ends within the next 60 days; and that is a tall order given how talks related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep ending in stalemate.
More realistically, rebuilding tourism infrastructure and tourism confidence in the region is bound to take years, with post-crisis consumer confidence building set to take at least nine months as governments divert funding and other resources to higher priority sectors.
As John Paolo R Rivera of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) put it: “War, whether indirectly or directly affecting us will have cascading and medium- to long-term effects on tourism. Other than oil prices, tourism is always one of the first sectors to be affected in times of conflict and also the last to recover.”
Hurdles to jump over
One thing that travel professionals need to remember is that travel and tourism are highly sensitive to any form of disruption, but especially the kind that compromises traveller safety and security.
As a result, travel is the first sector that shuts down in the event of political upheaval and armed conflict, and the ensuing exodus of foreign nationals easily leads to a massive loss in tourism revenue.
For West Asian tourism to recover, giving the rest of the world the assurance that their people will remain safe whilst travelling in their territory is paramount.
This is especially true in areas within the region where religious persecution and racial discord remain rife: if no one feels safe, then no one will even think about coming in.
At the same time, economic upheaval remains in play, especially as West Asia remains the world’s foremost source of crude oil: the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the longer the global fuel shortage will run, and fuel prices will consequently run higher.
To be frank, the current scenario is dire; but as history has shown us time and again, West Asia remains one of the most resilient regions in the world and travellers the world over are waiting for the fires of conflict to die down so that they may again seek its ancient secrets and wonders.
