Keynote speaker, James Hogan AO, Chairman - Knighthood Global shared his insights on the most important topic for travel today. Addressing a full house at the TDM Global Summit Bangkok 2026 being held at the Amari Bangkok hotel he spoke on the topic ‘Destination Branding in a Time of Crisis: A Recovery Playbook for the Gulf States’
He stated that destination branding counts because a strong brand will always withstand shocks. It stands for a unique, authentic proposition. It is flexible yet strong, trusted and reliable when it counts, remains agile in a crisis and ensures resilience and the capacity to rebound.
Resilient destination branding
At its core, resilient destination branding is often indistinguishable from nation-building, grounded in a clear government vision shaped by authentic cultural values and backed by strong, sustained leadership committed to ambitious national objectives. It requires strategic investment in infrastructure while aligning all stakeholders—from government and private sector to communities—around a shared purpose. Equally critical is a focus on empowering the national workforce, ensuring growth is inclusive and locally anchored. This foundation is strengthened by a continuous flow of communication, an open-door philosophy that encourages transparency and engagement, and a strong emphasis on collaboration, all of which together create a destination brand that is adaptive, credible and built for long-term resilience.
Branding with distinction
Something extraordinary was built with strong leadership and clear vision supported by sustained and significant investment. Gulf states have been strategically transforming the Arabian deserts into world-class internationally recognised destinations. Dubai witnessed 95.2 million passengers at its airports. Abu Dhabi has been branded through infrastructure like Ferrari World, Yas Island, Warner Brothers, Sea World. Qatar came into focus with the FIFA World Cup. We are all aware of the marketing efforts Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Red Sea Project, Shura Island, and Six Flags Qiddiya City
Infrastructure is the foundation
State-of-the-art Gulf airports handle c.14% of all global international transit traffic. Together Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways offered 1,400+ daily flights pre-conflict. Airlines are the most powerful national brand ambassadors. The “stay and spend” flywheel: transit - stopover - extended stay - repeat visit. One in every seven international passengers connecting between continents passes through a Gulf hub.
The integrated platform model
The integrated platform model has emerged as a best-practice approach, bringing airline, airport and destination assets under one strategic mandate through genuine structural integration. This model is evident in destinations such as Singapore, where entities including Temasek, the Ministry of Finance, Changi Airport Group, Singapore Airlines and the Singapore Tourism Board work in alignment; in Dubai through the Investment Corporation of Dubai, Emirates, Dubai Airports and Dubai World Commerce; as well as in Turkey through the Turkey Wealth Fund, and in France through Groupe ADP. Built around shared KPIs such as arrivals, yield, connectivity and reputation, this integrated approach creates a compounding economic flywheel, where coordinated aviation, tourism and investment strategies reinforce one another to drive long-term growth and destination competitiveness.
The war
It all changed on 28 February 2026: US / Israel strikes on Iran were followed by Iranian retaliation across the Gulf. Gulf states even though not participants were targeted as a wartime tactic. Their defence capabilities has been most effective against drones and missiles. Yet the damage was done to infrastructure and reputation. Some civilian infrastructure, including energy and tourism facilities, has been hit. IMF Deputy Managing Director Bo Li has stated: “MENA countries are facing unprecedented challenges, exceptional uncertainty in their outlook.”
The scale of the impact
Dubai hotel bookings down 60%+ and 37,000 flights cancelled in first ten days $600 million per day in lost regional visitor spending (WTTC). Three Gulf carriers collectively removed 5.4 million seats and 18,000 flights for the month of April. Main international carriers have temporarily suspended flights to the region 23 to 38 million fewer international visitors forecast for 2026 (Tourism Economics/ WTTC) or $34-56 billion in lost visitor spending.
Global GDP growth now projected at 2.6%, down from 3.1% (AACO). MENA’s real GDP growth forecast cut to 1.1% in the latest World Economic Outlook, 2.8 percentage points lower than Jan projection. (IMF) BUT, Saudi Arabia is expected to be less severely affected than its Gulf neighbours. Growth of 3.1% projected for 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than a January estimate. (IMF) Travel and Tourism’s contribution to GDP in the Arab world could drop from 10.7% to between 10.3% and 10.1%. (AACO) Travel and tourism-related employment losses are estimated at between 160,000 and 370,000 jobs (AACO).
What was damaged? Perception and confidence. Not the brand
Co-operation not competition
In an era of disruption, co-operation rather than competition is emerging as a defining principle for destination resilience. As often noted, the most important word in the Gulf Cooperation Council is “co-operation,” reflecting the understanding that no destination benefits from winning market share at a neighbour’s expense during a regional crisis. Instead, collaborative regional positioning can strengthen confidence and demand for all. This mirrors the Association of Southeast Asian Nations model of competing nationally while marketing regionally, where shared interests can coexist with individual ambitions. Founded in 1981 in response to regional instability, the GCC itself was built on this logic, and the same principle holds true for tourism in 2026: collective action, coordinated messaging and regional solidarity are proving more valuable than fragmented competition.
Destinations that bounced back, examples in resilience
Across successful recovery strategies, common factors emerge: investing during the crisis, maintaining coordinated messaging and strong consistent communication, while reinforcing traveller confidence through pricing incentives and clear safety assurances. Case studies: Hong Kong 2003 (SARS): occupancy from 17% to 93% in six months; 21 million visitors by 2004; Bali 2002 (bombings): arrivals returned to pre-crisis levels by late 2004; Japan 2011 (earthquake/tsunami/ Fukushima): arrivals fell 28%; by 2015 had doubled; 36.9 million by 2024 Abu
Why the Gulf is different?
Unlike many historical tourism crises where disruption originated within the destination itself, the current Gulf situation is fundamentally different, as the region was impacted externally rather than being the source of the conflict. As a result, the destination brand, tourism product, infrastructure and service culture remain undamaged, preserving core market confidence. This gives the region a far more favourable starting point for recovery than many historical precedents, with stronger fundamentals in place to accelerate rebound and restore demand.
Airlines take-off Recovery
Airlines play a pivotal role in leading tourism recovery, acting as both the first and last touchpoint for every visitor and shaping perceptions of the destination throughout the travel journey. In this context, route reopening is not merely an operational move but a destination marketing event that signals confidence and renewed connectivity to the market. Capacity decisions should therefore align with recovery priorities rather than legacy politics, ensuring air access supports strategic tourism goals. When airlines, airports and tourism authorities work together with one vision, one team and one plan, recovery efforts become far more coordinated, effective and impactful.
People are the brand
The national workforce is the most authentic brand ambassador. Cabin crew, hotel staff, taxi drivers, museum guides deliver the lived experience. Emiratisation at Etihad: empowerment and skills, confidence, cultural authenticity. In recovery, human interaction tips the balance.
The way forward
The way forward lies in a coordinated recovery framework built around a single national recovery command with executive authority, supported by joint steering groups with shared KPIs across all tourism sectors. Route and scheduling decisions must be aligned to recovery priorities through close coordination, while integrated communication and campaigns should bring aviation, destination promotion, events and culture together under one cohesive narrative. Above all, the imperative is to invest ahead of recovery—not wait for confidence to return—so destinations can shape the rebound proactively rather than react to it.
A regional commitment
Tourism recovery must be approached as a regional, not purely national, effort, recognising that resilience is strengthened through collaboration rather than competition. This means avoiding predatory pricing or narratives that undermine neighbouring destinations, and instead positioning the Gulf as a unified region to the world. Just as the Gulf Cooperation Council was founded on the principle of collective security, tourism recovery today demands the same logic—shared strategy, regional solidarity and coordinated action to rebuild confidence and drive sustained growth
The Gulf will come back
The brand is extraordinary, the infrastructure is world class and the welcome is genuine; what is required now is a strategy that is clear-eyed, well-funded, structurally integrated and strongly communicated. With the right approach, strong and resilient destination brands can transform a crisis into an opportunity, turning disruption into a catalyst for renewal and growth. The question is no longer whether recovery will happen, but how fast it can be achieved.
