The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its global passenger demand report for January 2026, showing an increase of 3.8 percent at the start of the year.
Total demand in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 3.8 percent from January 2025, while total capacity in available seat kilometers (ASK) rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year.
The load factor in January was at 82 percent, a record high for January.
International demand was up 5.9 percent compared to January 2025, with capacity up 5.8 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was at 82.5 percent.
Domestic demand saw a minimal increase of 0.1 percent compared from January 2025, but capacity fell -0.4 percent year-on-year and the load factor was 81.2 percent.
Relevant factors
January demand was skewed by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026.
Lunar New Year typically drives a spike in demand, as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday.
The year-on-year comparison had the effect of making January 2026 demand appear slightly weaker.
According to IATA director-general Willie Walsh: “The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8 percent expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026. Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2 percent increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024."
However, Walsh also pointed out that recent events in the Middle East have introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs.
He remarked: "We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm."
Other potential developments
Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel.
This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition.
In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999.
As Walsh put it: "Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues m
ust be addressed."
