With the Iran Conflict about to mark its first month, there has already been a considerable loss of life and livelihood throughout West Asia.
Tourism, one of the key contributors to the regional economy, has taken a serious hit and the West Asian industry is presently losing US$600 million in tourism revenues every day according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
In a statement issued by the WTTC earlier this week, it declared: “Any disruption affects demand worldwide, which impacts airports and flights, hotels, car hire companies and cruise lines.”
Before and after
Consider this before we move on: tourism contributed 6.7 percent of the entire West Asian gross domestic product (GDP) as of end-2023.
It is also important to note that, per the World Bank, West Asia was the only region to exceed its pre-pandemic tourist totals by 2023.
Indeed, throughout the period covering January to September of that year, West Asia and Northern Africa led the world in terms of tourism growth, outpacing its global neighbours in terms of both tourist arrivals and earnings from aviation, hospitality, and attractions.
Such recovery in the post-pandemic era was seen as proof of the region’s resilience in the face of crisis.
Recent numbers, however, tell a different story: experts the world over forecast that, if the conflict runs for two months or longer, West Asian nations stand to lose up to US$56 billion in tourism revenues, even with the possibility of a nine-month-long recovery period.
Tale of the tape
In a piece published for Tomorrow’s Affairs on 14th March, journalist Emre Alkin pointed out that, aside from Iran, Israel, and Palestine, four other West Asian nations stand to bear the financial brunt of the crisis.
These are:
- United Arab Emirates A 40 percent or higher decline in tourist arrivals stands to result in losses of up to US$20 billion in tourism revenues. As of press time, experts see hotel occupancy rates falling to 40 percent, while the retail sector may see a drop in revenue of up to 30 percent;
- Saudi Arabia As the crisis has cast a damper and a general sense of unease regarding the pilgrimages to Makkah and Madinah, the country stands to lose up to US$30 billion thanks to curtailed spending on the part of religious pilgrims, as well as business and leisure travellers;
- Qatar The MICE hub of West Asia is already announcing the postponement or cancellation of major events that were slated to be staged in the country. As a result, the country expects a loss of up to US$7 billion, a major issue for the hospitality and event management sectors; and
- Turkiye With the country serving as a gateway to both Europe and West Asia, the cancellation of flights and cruises will hit it particularly hard, driving total losses of up to US$25 billion and affecting employment throughout the industry.
Real talk: can West Asia recover from this?
For WTTC president and chief executive Gloria Guevara, all is not lost; after all, the region has seen conflict throughout the bulk of its history but its nations have emerged stronger, more resilient in the face of crisis.
As Guevara puts it: “Our analysis of previous crises demonstrates that security-related incidents often see the fastest tourism recovery times, in some cases as quickly as two months, when governments and industry work together to restore traveler confidence.”
In which case, clear communication and strong coordination between the public and private sectors will help drive recovery if and when the crisis ends.
Likewise, affected nations need to ramp up their safety and security measures to assure travellers heading into their jurisdiction that their welfare is being properly considered.
Indeed, it is in rebuilding the trust of travellers that West Asian tourism can find the strength to rise up from the proverbial ruins to come out bigger and better in the times to come.
