The latest GBTA Business Travel Outlook paints a sobering picture: optimism is fading fast, and travel budgets are taking a hit. New data from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) shows that the US government policies are causing ripples across the globe—shrinking travel volumes, slashing supplier revenues, and forcing meetings to go digital or relocate altogether. The July 2025 poll, which surveyed 950 stakeholders worldwide—including travel managers, suppliers, TMCs, and intermediaries—reveals a downward shift in sentiment compared to April. Industry optimism now stands at 28%, down from 31% in April and a dramatic plunge from 67% in November 2024.
Revenue fears among suppliers have sharply escalated. Nearly half (48%) of global travel suppliers expect a drop in business travel revenue this year, compared to 37% in April. On average, they’re forecasting a 17% decline. Lodging suppliers are particularly alarmed: 58% anticipate revenue losses, making them the most affected sector. This divergence in expectations is stark—while some buyers still see moderate stability in volumes, suppliers are preparing for a harsher reality, especially in international bookings.
Meetings Cancelled, Budgets Cut
Companies are increasingly pulling out of US-based events and replacing in-person meetings with virtual formats. Since April, there has been a marked rise in cancellations and relocations: 18% of respondents say they have cancelled US-based meetings (up from 13%), while 17% have cancelled events held in the U.S. (up from 10%). Meanwhile, 24% have shifted meetings online (compared to 19% previously), and 20% have cancelled plans to send employees to U.S. events (double the 10% reported in April). Additionally, 12% to 13% of organizations have moved meetings and events to destinations outside the US, reflecting a broader trend of travel realignment. Meanwhile, one-third of buyers (31%) anticipate reduced business travel spending, while 34% foresee a drop in travel volumes. International travel is hardest hit, with nearly half (49%) of respondents expecting declines—compared to 23% for domestic travel.
Admin Fatigue & Border Anxiety on the Rise
The most persistent long-term concerns are soaring travel costs (55%) and increased admin burdens (47%), but July’s poll surfaced new fears. Safety and duty of care concerns have climbed by 9 points to 46%, and worries over border detentions (31%) are also up significantly. Budget cuts remain a key concern (44%, up 4 points), and employee willingness to travel to the U.S. is waning—41% of non-U.S. employees now show reluctance, also up by 4 points. As US travel grows more uncertain, companies are actively seeking alternatives. A notable 35% of non-U.S. businesses say they’re traveling (or plan to travel) to meet new trade partners outside the U.S.—with Europe (70%) and Asia-Pacific (53%) emerging as top targets for building fresh connections. This isn’t just about strategy—it’s personal. Nearly 1 in 5 travel buyers (18%) report that employees have declined U.S.-based trips due to political or safety concerns. Even more striking: 35% of respondents say they personally know someone whose business travel was directly impacted by U.S. policy actions—up sharply from 23% in April.
