The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is causing unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets, according to GlobalData. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in oil prices surging past $110 per barrel, whilst the conflict's ripple effects are being felt across shipping, aviation, and trade sectors, heightening the risk of a global recession and inflation.

The conflict has expanded beyond military engagements, significantly affecting commercial activities. The US and Israel have executed over 5,000 strikes in Iran, targeting key military infrastructure, whilst Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli interests in the Gulf region. This has created a heightened threat to critical infrastructure and trade routes.

The immediate economic impact is evident in the energy and maritime sectors. Nearly 200 vessels are stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike from $70 to over $110 per barrel. Asian LNG spot prices have also more than doubled. Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Companies and Economic Research at GlobalData, noted that "corporate disruption is already severe across several sectors," with major shipping companies rerouting vessels and airlines grounding flights due to airspace closures.

Insurance and financial markets are also feeling the strain, with war-risk insurance premiums for vessels increasing tenfold, further tightening shipping capacity. Equity markets have reacted with volatility, as seen when the Dow Jones dropped over 400 points in a single session.

The sectors most exposed include energy, shipping, aviation, and manufacturing supply chains, all facing disruptions and increased costs. Mundada warns that if the conflict persists, the probability of a global recession and entrenched inflation pressures will rise, posing a significant risk to multiple regions

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