US festive season faces tourism test as international visitor demand weakens

The United States is entering the 2026–2027 holiday season with two contrasting tourism stories. Its cities and attractions are preparing for one of the busiest festive periods of the year, while domestic consumers remain willing to spend on celebrations. Yet international visitor demand is weakening, raising questions about whether America's seasonal appeal can translate into stronger global tourism performance.

From New York's Christmas landmarks to Orlando's theme parks, the United States offers a wide range of festive experiences. Elaborate light displays and seasonal entertainment add to its appeal. Airlines, hotels, attractions and tour operators can use these events to create holiday packages and encourage visitors to explore major destinations.

However, the latest industry forecasts point to a bigger challenge. The United States must become more competitive, accessible and appealing to international travellers.

The US Travel Association's November 2026 forecast projects that inflation-adjusted international visitor spending will fall by nearly US$11 billion this year. This represents a 6.3% decline to US$163 billion. International overnight arrivals are forecast to reach 67.8 million, approximately 14.6% below 2019 levels.

The association also expects total inflation-adjusted US travel spending to decline by 0.7% to US$1.35 trillion. This is despite a record 2.44 billion domestic trips. Travel prices are projected to rise by 7.2% in 2026. That is more than twice the forecast overall inflation rate of 3.4%.

The country's share of global long-haul arrivals has also fallen. It dropped from 10.3% in 2019 to a projected 7.7% in 2026. The US Travel Association expects international arrivals to take until 2030 to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) forecasts 70.5 million total international visitors in 2026. It expects the figure to rise to 74.1 million in 2027. These figures use a different measure from the US Travel Association's international overnight-arrival forecast. However, both highlight the need to rebuild inbound demand.

Domestic holiday spending remains resilient, but travel faces competition

American consumers are still preparing to spend during the festive season. However, the latest research shows that travel must compete with other household priorities.

Visa Business and Economic Insights forecasts US holiday retail sales will increase by 4.5% year on year in November and December. This would be the strongest growth since 2021. After accounting for inflation, growth is expected to reach just 1.1%.

Consumers plan to spend an average of US$777 on holiday gifts. This is up 5.6% from US$736 in 2025. However, higher travel costs are influencing household budgets.

More than half of survey respondents included travel and live events on their holiday wish lists. Yet only 15% prioritised spending on experiences. By comparison, 27% favoured physical gifts.

Visa's payment transaction analysis also found differences between income groups. Households earning more than US$200,000 were the only group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September. Lower-income groups reduced their bookings and airfare expenditure.

Research from Circana also points to cautious consumer confidence. Its 2026 US Holiday Purchase Intentions Study found that 57% of consumers rated current economic conditions as fair or poor. Meanwhile, 49% expected to spend less because of changes or uncertainty in their financial circumstances.

Almost three-quarters planned to adopt money-saving strategies. These include buying promotional products, using rewards points and making greater use of loyalty programmes.

Consumers are not abandoning holiday purchases or celebrations. Instead, they are becoming more selective about their spending.

For the tourism sector, this creates a mixed outlook. Domestic demand remains substantial. However, higher travel prices and tighter household budgets could limit spending on accommodation, flights and experiences.

America's festive attractions offer reasons to travel

Despite these pressures, the United States retains a strong seasonal tourism offering. Its Christmas calendar features internationally recognised events and major attractions. These can encourage visitors to extend their stays and spend more at their destinations.

New York remains one of the country's strongest festive attractions. NYC Tourism + Conventions expects approximately 8.1 million visitors during the holiday season.

The city's 100th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade takes place on 26 November. The Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting follows on 2 December. The celebrations culminate with the Times Square New Year's Eve event.

In Florida, Orlando offers an extended festive programme for families and theme-park visitors. Universal Orlando Resort runs its holiday celebrations from 14 November to 3 January 2027. Highlights include Grinchmas, Christmas in The Wizarding World of Harry Potter and its holiday parade.

Walt Disney World's EPCOT International Festival of the Holidays runs from 27 November to 30 December.

These events offer opportunities for hotels, airlines and tour operators. They can develop seasonal packages, encourage longer stays and attract families during the winter holiday period. However, international demand will depend partly on the cost and convenience of visiting the United States.

International visitor confidence remains a challenge

Attracting overseas visitors requires more than an appealing events calendar. Visa procedures, border inspections and immigration enforcement also matter. Perceptions of how foreign travellers are treated can influence destination choices.

The Financial Times reported that overseas arrivals to the United States, excluding Canada and Mexico, declined by 5.7% during the first nine months of 2026. Arrivals from Western Europe fell by 8.7%.

The report highlighted concerns among travel executives. These include immigration enforcement, visa restrictions, border procedures, political rhetoric and the stronger US dollar. Such concerns complicate the administration's ambition to attract 100 million international visitors annually by 2030.

A Washington Post opinion analysis published on 3 November also examined the effect of immigration enforcement on America's international image. It cited overseas visitor figures showing year-on-year declines of 1.8% in June, 7% in July and 11.8% in August.

The opinion piece argues that reports of foreign tourists being detained have affected perceptions of the country. It also highlights increased searches of electronic devices at US borders. These factors may contribute to perceptions of an unwelcoming destination.

They are not the only influences on travel decisions. However, they underline the importance of visitor confidence in an increasingly competitive international market.

Overseas visitors bring significant economic value. NTTO's second-quarter 2026 Survey of International Air Travelers found that overseas visitors stayed an average of 17.5 nights in the United States. They spent US$1,938 per person per trip.

The United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Japan and Germany were among the leading overseas source markets.

These longer stays benefit hotels, restaurants, attractions, retailers and transport providers. Losing international visitors therefore affects more than major hotels and gateway airports. It can also reduce spending across regional tourism economies.

US midterm results reshape the tourism policy landscape

The 3 November US midterm elections brought a significant change in congressional control. Democrats won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The party also made gains in traditionally Republican territory, including Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, according to Reuters.

President Donald Trump will therefore face a Democratic-controlled Congress when the new members take office in January 2027. The shift could affect legislative priorities, government funding and congressional oversight of the administration.

The results come as the US Travel Association presses Washington to address declining international visitor spending. Its recommendations include reauthorising Brand USA and restoring its funding. The association also wants stronger visa-processing capacity, a review of unnecessary visa fees and investment in airport security and air traffic control modernisation.

The association has separately urged the current Congress to protect holiday travel ahead of the 11 December government funding deadline. It wants Transportation Security Administration officers and air traffic controllers to receive uninterrupted pay during funding lapses.

The election result does not automatically change visa requirements, immigration enforcement or border procedures. These policies remain substantially within the executive branch's authority. However, Congress can influence them through legislation, funding and oversight.

The coming months will therefore be important for the US tourism sector. The industry will be watching how the new congressional balance affects travel policy and efforts to attract international visitors.

Can the festive season strengthen America's tourism competitiveness?

The United States has a strong festive tourism offering. New York's Christmas traditions and Orlando's theme parks provide compelling reasons to visit. Domestic spending forecasts also suggest that consumers are still making room for seasonal celebrations.

However, the figures reveal a more complicated picture. Domestic holiday spending remains resilient, but consumers are becoming more price-conscious. Travel must compete with other purchases. Meanwhile, international arrivals and spending remain under pressure as the United States faces stronger competition from destinations around the world.

The festive season alone will not reverse this trend. America must use its seasonal attractions as part of a broader effort to improve affordability, accessibility and visitor confidence.

For airlines, hotels, tour operators and destination marketers, the coming winter will test more than the appeal of America's Christmas celebrations. It will show whether the country can turn that appeal into sustained international demand.