Asia-Pacific tourism is expected to surpass pre-pandemic arrival levels in 2026, but industry leaders warn destinations remain vulnerable to geopolitical instability, climate disruption, and overreliance on visitor growth metrics. 

Noor Ahmad Hamid, CEO of the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), said shocks affecting the tourism sector are no longer isolated disruptions but increasingly permanent structural risks. “Before the pandemic, once every three or four years, you had crises and challenges. But now it's almost like every other week and every other month there are new surprises happening to our travel and tourism space.” 

PATA’s latest Asia Pacific forecast outlook for 2026 to 2028 showed international visitor arrivals in the region reached about 649 million in 2024 as tourism demand recovered to pre-pandemic levels. However, Hamid warned recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the Middle East exposed ongoing weaknesses across the sector. 

According to Hamid, destinations hoping to withstand geopolitical and climate shocks will need to diversify source markets, strengthen domestic and intra-regional travel, and invest more heavily in crisis preparedness.

The discussion also questioned whether tourism remains too dependent on arrival numbers as the industry’s primary success metric.

“The answer to that is yes and no,” Hamid said, noting global tourism recovered to around 1.4 billion international travellers in 2024, or roughly 90% to 99% of pre-pandemic levels. 

Hamid said destinations focused purely on volume risk intensifying overtourism, infrastructure strain, and local community backlash. He said, “We need to talk about yield per visitor, length of stay, and how the value can benefit the local community and environmental sustainability.” 

The discussion further highlighted how artificial intelligence is expected to reshape tourism operations, marketing, and traveller decision-making.

“We are using AI to predict demand in real time,” Hamid said. “We are seeing how pricing and capacity can be optimized and managed in a much better manner.” 

Hamid said AI could eventually support an “autonomous tourism industry” covering travel booking, border check-ins, and personalised travel experiences, as destinations increasingly rely on data-driven systems to improve operational resilience and manage visitor flow.