Global passenger demand experienced some geopolitical turbulence in May 2026, dropping 2.2 percent year-on-year, primarily driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
However, the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reveals an industry that remains remarkably resilient.
Stripping out the Middle East, global demand actually edged up by 0.7 percent, while the global passenger load factor (PLF) climbed to a historic high for the month of May at 83.5 percent.
Total global capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased by 2.3 percent year-on-year though, on the international front, demand fell by 1.6 percent compared to May 2025.
Nevertheless, it jumped 3.1 percent when excluding Middle Eastern markets; consequently, domestic markets contracted by 3.1 percent, heavily influenced by unique domestic conditions in China and the United States.
West Asian resilience
While Middle Eastern carriers bore the brunt of the regional crisis, suffering a 28.4 percent year-on-year decline in overall demand and a 28.8 percent drop internationally, the numbers hide a story of rapid stabilization.
This figure represents a major rebound from the staggering 46.6 percent drop recorded in April, signaling a swift operational adaptation by regional airlines.
According to IATA director-general Willie Walsh: "Air passenger demand was down 2.2 percent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East, [but] that’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 percent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience."
Walsh noted that despite high fuel prices and airfares, consumer demand has not broken but also warned that with airlines operating on a tight two percent profit margin, travelers should expect higher fares to persist.
Uncertainty surrounding oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz means it will take time for recent drops in crude prices to filter down to normalized jet fuel pricing.
Breakthroughs in May
The global aviation landscape varied widely by region in May, with Latin America and Africa leading the growth charts, while major domestic markets saw minor pullbacks.
Latin American airlines posted a stellar 10.5% jump in international demand on a 9.0% capacity increase, leading to an impressive 85.0% load factor. African airlines also maintained their upward trajectory, growing demand by 8.9% with a load factor of 73.4%.
European carriers enjoyed a 3.8% bump in international demand, notably driven by a 15% surge in direct traffic to Asia as airlines increasingly bypass traditional hubs. This pushed Europe’s overall load factor to a chart-topping 85.9%.
Meanwhile, North American carriers increased international demand by a modest 1.0%, achieving an 84.0% load factor, though its total market demand dipped slightly by 0.8% due to domestic cooling.
Infrastructure bottlenecks and domestic shifts
In the Asia-Pacific region, international demand grew a modest 1.3%. However, total regional traffic dipped 1.4% year-on-year. Intra-Asia traffic took a localized hit due to tight jet fuel import limits in Vietnam, which triggered severe short-haul capacity cuts across the area.
On the domestic front, travel fell 3.1% globally. China saw the sharpest decline, tied to rising airfares and the calendar shift of the Dragon Boat Festival into June. The US domestic market also faced a minor contraction, contributing to the broader domestic slowdown.
Despite localized supply chain crunches and geopolitical tension, the record-breaking global load factors prove that the appetite for travel remains robust as the industry enters the peak summer season.
