Airbus has announced that the global demand for aviation services is expected to double by 2045, reaching an estimated value of more than US$420 billion. This growth, driven by a 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), will support an expanding global aircraft fleet projected to reach 45,550 by 2045. Passenger numbers are also anticipated to double, hitting 10 billion over the same period.
The burgeoning demand will necessitate over 2.44 million additional skilled personnel, including 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1,050,000 cabin crew. Digital solutions and connectivity are set to play a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, reducing disruptions, and meeting passenger expectations for seamless travel.
Airbus' Global Services Forecast (GSF) identifies six key service segments poised for growth:
- **Off-Wing Maintenance**: Expected to reach US$217 billion by 2045, with a 3.7% CAGR.
- **Maintenance Operations Support**: Projected at US$104 billion, growing at 4.3% CAGR.
- **On-Wing Maintenance**: Anticipated to be US$36 billion, with a 2.8% CAGR.
- **Digital & Connectivity**: The fastest-growing segment, expected to triple to US$27 billion, with a 5.3% CAGR.
- **Modifications & Upgrades**: Forecasted at US$21 billion, with a 2.6% CAGR.
- **Training**: Estimated at US$17 billion, growing at 3.1% CAGR.
Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, emphasised the importance of preparing for this growth, stating, “As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready.”
In the coming decades, Europe, North America, and China will remain the largest markets, whilst Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region. The Airbus GSF remains focused on passenger jets with over 100 seats and freighters with a payload above 10 tonnes.
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