European and US airlines could see more aircraft grounded this winter due to soaring fuel costs, according to aviation analyst John Strickland. Speaking during a World Aviation Festival webinar, Strickland highlighted that airlines might opt to reduce flight frequencies rather than lower fares to boost demand, as the high cost of fuel makes some services economically unviable.
Strickland, who leads JLS Consulting, noted that despite airlines' efforts to cut prices, they are unlikely to offset the increased fuel expenses. "No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn't be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel," he stated. This situation could lead to a higher number of flight cancellations during the winter months, traditionally a period of reduced demand.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected a nearly 40% rise in fuel costs, reaching $350 billion in 2026, with fuel comprising 31.4% of total operating expenses. Despite these challenges, Strickland acknowledged that airlines have managed to avoid a supply breakdown by sourcing alternative fuel supplies and employing hedging strategies.
As the industry transitions from the peak summer period, airlines are closely monitoring booking levels and route performance to determine viable frequencies. Strickland will further discuss these issues at the World Aviation Festival in Lisbon from 13-15 October 2026, where he will moderate a panel on aviation growth featuring several airline CEOs
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