Global cruise industry heads towards 40 million passengers

The global cruise industry is on course for another year of growth, with passenger numbers forecast to reach 38.3 million in 2026 and 40.3 million in 2027, according to Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA).

The projections, published in CLIA’s 2026 State of the Cruise Industry Report, follow a record 37.2 million ocean-going passengers in 2025, up 7.5% from 34.6 million in 2024.

Passenger volumes are forecast to rise further to 41.2 million in 2028 and 42.1 million in 2029. The estimates point to continued expansion, although annual growth is expected to moderate as additions to global fleet capacity taper off.

Tourism Economics, which provides the forecasts used by CLIA, also estimates that more than 38 million passengers will cruise in 2026, supported by approximately 260 million available passenger cruise days.

The outlook comes as operators expand their fleets, develop new itineraries and target demand across established and emerging cruise markets. For ports, hotels, travel advisers and destination management companies, the growth creates opportunities to capture spending from passengers both onboard and ashore.

North America remains the largest source market

North America continued to dominate cruise demand in 2025, accounting for approximately 22.1 million passengers, up 7.5% from 20.5 million in 2024.

The United States alone contributed 20.6 million passengers, equivalent to about 55% of global demand, according to figures from CLIA reported by Seatrade Cruise.

Europe was the second-largest source region, with 8.9 million passengers in 2025, a 5.3% increase from 8.4 million a year earlier. Germany remained a significant contributor, with 2.8 million cruise passengers.

Asia recorded one of the strongest growth rates among major source markets. Passenger numbers reached approximately 3 million, up 14.5% from 2.6 million in 2024. China led the region with 1.1 million passengers, an increase of 15.8%.

Australasia recorded 1.5 million passengers, up 7.5%, while South America reached 1.12 million, an increase of 4.2%.

The figures measure where cruise passengers originate, rather than where ships sail. This distinction is important for travel businesses assessing both customer demand and destination opportunities.

Asia-Pacific expands its cruise footprint

Asia's passenger growth is supporting opportunities for cruise lines, ports and tourism businesses seeking to develop regional itineraries.

According to CLIA's 2026 report, Asian source-market passenger numbers rose 14.5% in 2025. Separately, Cruise Industry News' 2026 deployment outlook estimates that Asia-Pacific will accommodate more than 4.4 million cruise passengers in 2026, representing just over 11.4% of global cruise deployment capacity.

The two figures describe different measures: passengers originating from Asia and capacity deployed in the region. They should not be treated as interchangeable.

The region's appeal includes established destinations in Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, alongside opportunities to develop itineraries connecting Southeast Asian ports. For Thailand and neighbouring markets, cruise calls can generate demand for shore excursions, local transport, attractions, restaurants and shopping.

Homeporting offers a further opportunity. Passengers embarking on a cruise may require flights, hotel accommodation and transfers before departure, while those ending their voyage may extend their stay.

However, capturing this business depends on port infrastructure, convenient air connections, efficient immigration procedures and excursion products that fit cruise schedules. Growth in the wider cruise market does not automatically guarantee additional calls to every destination.

Caribbean and Mediterranean retain leading positions

Despite Asia's growth, the Caribbean and Mediterranean remain major cruise deployment regions.

The Caribbean, Bahamas and Bermuda together accounted for 16.27 million passengers in 2025, equivalent to approximately 44% of global destination activity, according to figures reported by Seatrade Cruise.

The Mediterranean received approximately 3.22 million passengers, while non-Mediterranean European destinations recorded a similar number.

For 2026, Cruise Industry News estimates that the Caribbean will attract approximately 17 million passengers, compared with 11 million in 2019. The Mediterranean is projected to accommodate around 6 million, up from 4 million in 2019.

These estimates reflect passenger deployment and destination activity, not the number of people originating from those regions.

The figures underline the importance of established cruise hubs, where ports, transport links and excursion operators already support large passenger volumes. They also highlight the competitive challenge facing emerging destinations seeking to attract cruise lines and secure a place on future itineraries.

Fleet investment supports longer-term growth

Cruise lines are continuing to invest in ships as the industry prepares for higher passenger volumes.

CLIA reported that its member lines operated 325 ocean-going vessels in 2026, representing approximately 690,000 lower berths. Its fleet outlook includes growth across large, medium-sized and smaller vessels, with luxury, expedition and exploration cruising among the developing segments.

The Seatrade Cruise orderbook provides a further indicator of investment. Its October 2026 figures list 81 confirmed vessels, with a combined capacity of 221,752 lower berths and an estimated value of US$94.6 billion.

The pipeline extends into the next decade, meaning fleet deployment decisions made today will influence capacity and itinerary options for years to come.

For cruise operators, the challenge is to align new vessels with passenger demand, seasonal patterns and suitable port infrastructure. For destinations, attracting ships requires reliable services and experiences that meet the expectations of cruise passengers.

Environmental investment is also becoming an important part of fleet planning, with operators developing more fuel-flexible ships and investing in energy efficiency, wastewater treatment and shore-power readiness.

Outlook: 40 million passengers in 2027

CLIA's forecast places global ocean-going cruise passenger numbers at 40.3 million in 2027, rising to 42.1 million by 2029.

The projections suggest continued growth, but at a more moderate annual pace than the immediate post-pandemic recovery. Actual results will depend on consumer demand, fleet deployment, operating costs and the wider travel environment.

For travel advisers and tour operators, the expanding market offers opportunities to sell cruises to new customers and build packages around sailings. Hotels and destination businesses can benefit from pre- and post-cruise stays, excursions and passenger spending, while ports face growing demands for capacity and efficient operations.

The industry's next phase will be shaped not only by the number of passengers at sea, but also by how effectively cruise lines and destinations work together to accommodate them.