An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June 2026, according to UN Tourism. Canary4stock / Shutterstock.comGlobal tourism faces a more challenging end to 2026 as geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices and rising travel costs weigh on demand, with attacks on Saudi Arabia's aviation infrastructure adding to uncertainty for airlines, destinations and travel businesses.
UN Tourism lowered its forecast for growth in international tourist arrivals in 2026 to 1%–2%, from the 3%–4% projected in January, according to its September 2026 World Tourism Barometer. The organisation cited the wider Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and persistent inflation as factors weighing on the outlook.
The forecast downgrade predates the October attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, which has since reopened. The incidents nevertheless highlight the continuing risks to international connectivity.
For travel businesses, the challenge extends beyond attracting visitors. Airlines must manage operating costs and network disruption, while hotels, tour operators and destination marketers face uncertainty over demand, pricing and travellers' willingness to spend.
International tourism loses momentum
An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June 2026, approximately three million more than during the same period last year, according to UN Tourism. Global arrivals grew by 0.4% year on year during the first half.
However, growth slowed over the six-month period. International arrivals increased by 2% year on year in the first quarter before declining by 1% in the second quarter. Arrivals also fell by 3% in June.
UN Tourism attributed the weaker performance to geopolitical tensions, higher travel costs and disruption to air transport. The organisation also noted that the timing of Easter affected comparisons between quarters.
Regional results were mixed. Africa recorded 4% growth in international arrivals during the first half, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%. Asia and the Pacific grew by 1%, while the Middle East experienced a 22% decline.
The figures point to a tourism market that continues to expand globally but remains vulnerable to regional instability, uneven demand and rising operating costs.
UN Tourism said the full-year outlook would depend on the duration of the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices and overall inflation.
Aviation disruption adds to industry risks
The Middle East's decline in international arrivals reflects the direct effects of conflict on destinations and the wider consequences for aviation and traveller confidence.
Disruption to major air routes can affect markets well beyond the region, particularly when itineraries depend on connecting flights through regional hubs. Flight suspensions and rerouting can complicate airline operations, increase costs and create uncertainty for tour operators and corporate travel managers.
The October attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport highlighted the vulnerability of regional aviation to geopolitical shocks. Although the airport has since reopened, airlines' subsequent service adjustments underline the potential for disruption to affect passenger connections, tour operators and corporate travel planning. The scale and duration of the remaining disruption will depend on individual airline schedules and operational decisions.
The economic consequences extend beyond individual flight disruptions. Higher oil prices can raise airline operating expenses, while inflation increases costs for accommodation, transport and other tourism services. Carriers may respond through fare adjustments or fuel surcharges, potentially making international travel less affordable.
For tourism businesses, the combination of higher costs and unpredictable connectivity complicates capacity planning, pricing and forward bookings.
Asia-Pacific recovery remains uneven
Asia and the Pacific recorded 1% growth in international arrivals during the first half of 2026, although arrivals remained 11% below 2019 levels.
Performance varied across the region. North-East Asia recorded 3% growth, while South Asia declined by 5% and South-East Asia by 1% compared with the first half of 2025.
South-East Asia also recorded a 5% decline in arrivals in June. UN Tourism attributed the fall to weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, disruption to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs.
For destinations across Southeast Asia, the figures underline the importance of maintaining competitive pricing, strengthening air connectivity and diversifying source markets.
Higher international fares could put pressure on demand, particularly among price-sensitive travellers who can postpone trips or choose closer alternatives. Destinations dependent on particular source markets or connecting routes may be especially exposed to external shocks.
For airlines and tourism operators, monitoring booking trends by source market, route capacity and traveller spending will be important in assessing whether demand can withstand further cost increases.
Nevertheless, the region's overall growth indicates that demand has not weakened uniformly across Asia-Pacific, creating opportunities for destinations and businesses that can respond to changing travel patterns.
Industry confidence remains cautiously positive
Despite the weaker growth outlook, UN Tourism's latest confidence survey suggests that industry expectations remain mixed rather than uniformly negative.
Among tourism experts surveyed, 45% expected performance during September–December to be better or much better than in the same period of 2025. A further 34% anticipated similar performance, while 21% expected conditions to worsen.
The resulting confidence score was 113 on a scale of 0 to 200, where 100 represents expectations of unchanged performance.
The findings suggest that parts of the industry remain optimistic about the final months of the year, even as geopolitical and economic uncertainty persists. However, the confidence index measures expert sentiment rather than actual arrivals, revenue or profitability.
For the travel industry, the final quarter of 2026 will test how effectively businesses can balance demand, operating costs and uncertainty. While international tourism is still growing, uneven regional performance and geopolitical risks make flexible capacity planning, competitive pricing and diversified source markets increasingly important.
