Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector has continued to grow despite regional volatility, with the Kingdom welcoming 37.2 million tourists in the first quarter of 2026, up 8 percent year-on-year, according to a new study examining how destinations can build resilience against increasingly frequent global disruptions. The research by TOURISE, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, points to Saudi Arabia as an example of how tourism diversification under Saudi Vision 2030 can translate into measurable resilience. The Kingdom has also reached its target of 100 million annual visitors seven years ahead of schedule, according to the report.
The findings form part of Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption, which analyses 85 major crises over two decades. It finds that destinations taking action before disruption occurs can recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that wait until a crisis hits. Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism of Saudi Arabia and Chairman of TOURISE, said: “In a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape. The real test for destinations measures how they prepare for volatility, protect traveller confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events.”
The study uses the current Middle East crisis as a lens to examine the impact of disruption on international tourism, particularly given the importance of the Gulf to global aviation. Gulf hubs account for around 14 percent of global transit traffic, meaning prolonged disruption in the region could have wider consequences for international travel. The report models three possible scenarios for the current Middle East crisis. If the ceasefire holds, global travel is forecast to grow by around 6 percent in 2026. If hostilities resume, it could decline by around 1 percent, while sustained disruption could result in a 3 percent decline and continued weakness into 2027. Across all three scenarios, however, the study concludes that the speed of recovery is determined less by the crisis itself than by how quickly destinations can restore traveller confidence, connectivity and affordability.
The research also finds that tourism has become considerably quicker at recovering from major shocks. Average recovery times have fallen from around 24 months in the early 2000s to between 10 and 12 months today, although increasingly complex disruptions affecting multiple countries are beginning to challenge that progress. Traveller confidence is emerging as another major factor in destination resilience, particularly as misinformation spreads rapidly online. The report cites an example from 2025, when viral rumours of a megaquake led to booking declines of up to 50 percent from some East Asian markets despite there being no scientific basis for the claims.
Against this backdrop, the report identifies preparation as an increasingly important competitive advantage for tourism destinations. Saudi Arabia’s performance is cited as an example, with its 8 percent year-on-year tourism growth in the first quarter of 2026 coming despite volatility across the wider region. The study links this resilience to the Kingdom’s diversification efforts under Saudi Vision 2030, highlighting how advance planning and a broader tourism economy can help destinations maintain growth when external conditions become more challenging.
Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, said: “Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025 despite a decade defined by natural and man-made disasters. The lesson learned is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, in the actions destinations take to prepare. In a world that no longer resets between crises, preparedness is becoming a core measure of competitiveness.”
The report ultimately argues that destinations will increasingly need to treat resilience as part of their long-term tourism strategy rather than simply as a response to individual crises, with preparedness, traveller confidence, connectivity and affordability becoming key factors in determining how quickly tourism economies can withstand and recover from future disruptions.
